South and South-West Asia could witness an economic growth of 5.3 per cent in 2015, which will be a four-year high.
Armed with necessary macro and micro growth drivers, India is on its way to becoming the fastest growing major economy in the world, a finance ministry report said. Rapid vaccination and teeming festivities will push India's ongoing recovery resulting in narrowing of demand-supply mismatches and greater employment opportunities, as per the monthly Economic Review prepared by the ministry.
FY22 will be the year to rebuild with the IMF projecting output growth at 11.5 per cent, economic survey at 11.0 per cent and the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee at 10.5 per cent.
Make in India crucial for growth.
'The new government will have to contend with slowing economic growth, weak private investment, anaemic exports and vulnerable external imbalances, a stressed financial system, mounting fiscal pressures (including high government debt-to-GDP ratios) and an exceptionally bad employment situation,' says Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
Despite strong AUM growth, MFs lag behind other popular investment avenues. MFs received only 6 per cent of total household savings in 2021-2022.
The Finance Ministry expects GDP growth to be 8-8.5 per cent in 2015-16.
IMF, which has also lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2016 and 2017 by a marginal 0.1 per cent to 3.1 and 3.4 per cent respectively, recommended six 'reform priorities' for India
The US-based agency, however, termed the 7 per cent GDP growth for the October-December quarter as "surprising", a tad lower than 7.4 per cent in the previous quarter.
The only real solution to the jobs crisis, whether in India or abroad, is to direct tech innovation towards job enhancing sectors, and disincentivising job-replacing ones, observes R Jagannathan.
It is a national economic problem and one that requires a political solution hand in hand with a clear government commitment to stand behind core national assets, says Vinayak Chatterjee.
'If because of El Nino, the monsoon is affected adversely in the current year, naturally it will affect income projections and consequently Budget numbers.'
Rajan said that central banks should not ignore global responsibilities.
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday said India's high fiscal deficit would pose a challenge in lowering the debt to GDP ratio, which is expected to rise above 90 per cent in the next five years. It said India entered the pandemic with little fiscal headroom from a rating perspective. Its general government debt/GDP ratio stood at 72 per cent in 2019, against a median of 42 per cent for 'BBB' rated peers.
Subbarao's remarks come against the backdrop of Finance Minister P Chidambaram's assertions in recent weeks that RBI should not focus solely on containing inflation but also look at the larger mandate of growth and job creation.
Tuesday's meeting at the PM's residence, attended by all the five secretaries in the finance ministry besides top officials of other economic ministries and NITI Aayog, cleared a five-year vision plan for the government to make India a $5-trillion economy by 2024.
Modi's critics will say that he has put up cement and steel structures, but weakened the institutions of governance whereas Nehru strengthened them, observes T N Ninan.
In order to achieve $5 trillion GDP by FY'25, India needs to spend about $1.4 trillion over this period on infrastructure, according to the Economic Survey. During financial years 2008-17, India pumped in about $1.1 trillion on infrastructure. However, the challenge is to step up infrastructure investment substantially, the Economic Survey 2021-22 said.
The long-term growth perspective or potential for India is one of the highest in the Asia Pacific region.
Indian economist Kalpana Kochhar, who heads the Human Resources Department of the International Monetary Fund, is leaving the organisation to join the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the IMF announced on Wednesday. Kochhar, who served in various senior positions during her three decades at the IMF, will retire on July 30, it said.
India's public debt ratio, which remarkably remained stable at around 70 per cent of the GDP since 1991, is projected to jump by 17 percentage points to nearly 90 per cent because of increase in public spending due to COVID-19, the IMF said.
For 2021-22, it projected the economy to clock a growth of 10.6 per cent.
There is a need to have a 'CEO for Mumbai' in order to realise the ambition of making it a global financial centre.
The PM said that the Union Budget will accelerate the economic growth, financially empower every citizen and strengthen the foundation of the economy in the new decade.
Exuding confidence in sustaining the tempo of credit growth, public sector bankers said on Wednesday that consolidation in the public sector bank (PSB) space has given them a robust base to scale. The privatisation of PSBs can be done through divestment of government stake to a wider base of investors without haste. There is nothing to worry about at this point (high credit offtake) as underwriting standards and risk management are much better.
'For the next two years, we expect the bulk of earnings growth contribution from sectors like financials and energy, where the outlook remains positive, while the sectors which are linked to domestic consumption and are currently witnessing strains on margins have low salience for Nifty earnings.'
China's new leadership headed by Xi ruled out massive stimulus similar to the one in 2008 which amounted to $645 billion to tide over the global economic crisis.
India on Tuesday told the UN General Assembly that the days when a few nations set the agenda and expected others to fall in line are over, underlining that its presidency of the G20 sought to focus on key concerns of the many, not just the narrow interests of a few.
The previous high in quarterly GDP growth was recorded in the January-March quarter of 2015-16 at 9.3 per cent.
India's residential market is expected to sustain demand momentum despite rise in mortgage and property rates as sales this year across the top 7 cities are likely to breach pre-pandemic level of 2.62 lakh units, industry players said. After braving four back-to-back disruptions in form of demonetisation, RERA, GST and COVID-19 in the last 6 years, industry experts feel the housing market is going through a lot of structural changes and is now at the start of a long-term upcycle. Homebuyers body FPCE gives credit to the Real Estate Regulatory Authority (RERA) under the Real Estate (Regulation & Development) Act, 2016 for this improved buying sentiment.
Relax fiscal consolidation, boost public capex and reduce cost of finance, industry tells Centre
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According to the global financial services major, the primary concern for the RBI at the moment has to be anchoring elevated inflation expectations and stabilising the currency, which could face renewed pressures if the Fed begins QE tapering this week, as widely expected.
Concerned by GDP slowdown and unrealistic tax targets, the economists urged Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to implement long-term structural steps like land and labour reforms. Warning against any off-Budget financing the economists said the government should prepare a statement of intent for its social, rural and welfare sector expenditure.
The world economy's growth engine is slowing, but not collapsing.
Bringing in the untapped informal sector into the formal one will benefit business.
Business failures rise when growth declines. When Indian growth slowed in the last decade, defaults increased. This is the normal working of the market economy, points out Ajay Shah.
'At this moment, investors should look for relative value within sectors and clear visibility (third-wave-or-not) on earnings delivery.'
For all its claims to economic glory, the majority of India's population lives vulnerable lives, a situation that has only worsened over the past 15 years, to the extent that the government now fears to release economic data or even conduct a proper Census, notes Rathin Roy.
Tata Steel delivered one of its best financial performances ever in the third quarter of the current financial year, and surpassed its deleveraging target of $1 billion. In an interview, Koushik Chatterjee, executive director and chief financial officer, Tata Steel, tells Ishita Ayan Dutt that the company will continue to focus on deleveraging but profitable and value-added growth will be equally important.
In UK, France and Germany, the president and CEO of Edelweiss Securities, anticipates votes incrementally in favour of local protection and de-globalisation.
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